President Donald Trump is forging ahead with plans to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, despite intense Arab, Muslim and European opposition to a move that would upend decades of US policy and risk potentially violent protests.
Mr Trump also told the leaders of the Palestinian Authority and Jordan in phone calls that he intends to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
It remains unclear, however, when he might take that physical step, which is required by US law but has been waived on national security grounds for more than two decades.
Mr Trump is set to publicly address the question of Jerusalem on Wednesday (local time).
US officials familiar with his planning said he would declare Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, a rhetorical volley that could have its own dangerous consequences.
The United States has never endorsed the Jewish state’s claim of sovereignty over any part of Jerusalem and has insisted its status be resolved through Israeli-Palestinian negotiation.
The mere consideration of Mr Trump changing the status quo sparked a renewed US security warning.
America’s consulate in Jerusalem ordered US personnel and their families to avoid visiting Jerusalem’s Old City or the West Bank, and urged American citizens in general to avoid places with increased police or military presence.
Mr Trump, as a presidential candidate, repeatedly promised to move the US embassy.
However, US leaders have routinely and unceremoniously delayed such a move since president Bill Clinton signed a law in 1995 stipulating that the US must relocate its diplomatic presence to Jerusalem unless the commander in chief issues a waiver on national security grounds.
Mr Trump is likely to do the same, US officials said, though less quietly.
That is why he plans to couple the waiver with the declaration of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, according to the officials who were not authorised to speak publicly on the matter and demanded anonymity.
National security advisers urge caution
Key national security advisers including Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defence Secretary Jim Mattis have urged caution, according to the officials, who said Mr Trump has been receptive to some of their concerns.
The concerns are real: Mr Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital could be viewed as America discarding its longstanding neutrality and siding with Israel at a time that the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has been trying to midwife a new peace process into existence.
Mr Trump too has spoken of his desire for a “deal of the century” that would end Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
US officials, along with an outside adviser to the administration, said they expected a broad statement from Mr Trump about Jerusalem’s status as the “capital of Israel”.
The President is not planning to use the phrase “undivided capital,” according to the officials.
Such terminology is favoured by Israeli officials including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and would imply Israel’s sovereignty over east Jerusalem, which the Palestinians seek for their own future capital.
Jerusalem includes the holiest ground in Judaism, but it is also home to Islam’s third-holiest shrine and major Christian sites, and forms the combustible centre of the Israeli-Arab conflict.
Any perceived harm to Muslim claims to the city has triggered volatile protests in the past, both in the Holy Land and across the Muslim world.
International leaders warn Trump to back down
Within the Trump administration, officials were still debating the particulars of the President’s expected speech as they fielded a flood of warnings from allied governments.
The Jerusalem declaration notwithstanding, one official said Mr Trump would insist that issues of sovereignty and borders must be negotiated by Israel and the Palestinians.
The official said Mr Trump would call for Jordan to maintain its role as the legal guardian of Jerusalem’s Muslim holy places, and reflect Israel and Palestinian wishes for a two-state peace solution.
Still, any US declaration on Jerusalem’s status ahead of a peace deal “would harm peace negotiation process and escalate tension in the region,” Saudi Arabia’s King Salman told Mr Trump, according to a Saudi readout of their telephone conversation.
Declaring Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the king said, “would constitute a flagrant provocation to all Muslims, all over the world”.
In his calls to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordan’s King Abdullah II, Mr Trump delivered what appeared to be identical messages of intent.
Both leaders warned Mr Trump that moving the embassy would threaten Middle East peace efforts and security and stability in the region and the world, according to statements from their offices.
The statements did not speak to Mr Trump’s plans for recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
Ahmed Aboul-Gheit, the head of the Arab League, urged the US to reconsider any recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, warning of “repercussions”.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his Parliament such recognition was a “red line” and that Turkey could respond by cutting diplomatic ties with Israel.
French President Emmanuel Macron said he reminded Mr Trump in a phone call on Monday that Jerusalem should be determined through negotiations on setting up an independent Palestine alongside Israel.
Meeting US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in Brussels, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said actions undermining peace efforts “must be absolutely avoided”.
Despite Mr Trump’s comments to world leaders, US officials said an embassy announcement was not seen as imminent.
Instead, they said Mr Trump would likely sign a waiver pushing off any announcement of moving the embassy to Jerusalem for another six months.
Mr Trump will also give wide latitude to his ambassador in Israel, David Friedman, to make a determination on when a Jerusalem embassy would be appropriate, according to the officials.
Mr Friedman has spoken in favour of the move.